Tactical Watch: Spurs expected to rotate ahead of crucial Europa League tie

With eight games to go, Spurs find themselves in the bottom half of the table. Few expected that, so what’s gone wrong?

Like so many Premier League sides this season, injuries have caused seismic issues for Spurs, resulting in a hugely disappointing campaign. For a squad so talented to lose 16 (50%) of their games, something has to go really wrong.

Losing centre-backs Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero for so long destabilised the defence, while left-back Destiny Udogie and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario missed stretches too. Up front Dominic Solanke has battled fitness issues and the midfield personnel has changed liberally.

Those ailments have caused knock-on effects elsewhere, either by forcing players like Archie Gray to play out of position to cover, or forcing players like Pedro Porro to play so much football they look drained of energy.

Manager Ange Postecoglou has had a tough time putting out fire after fire this season.

Given there’s been so much change, has their tactical identity suffered?

Despite all the upheaval to the XI, Spurs have tried to stay true to Postecoglou’s brand of attacking football. They average the fourth-most possession per game (54.6%) in the league and the fifth-most shots (14). The fact their goal difference is +11 hints that when they do click into gear, they can win big – they just haven’t found that rhythm often enough.

Only Newcastle United and Chelsea take more shots from the right side of the pitch than Spurs, which is a product of Porro’s influence in build-up play from full-back, but also the positioning of winger Brennan Johnson, who times runs into the back post superbly and finishes off close-range chances.

Spurs are able to stretch teams and create those chances for Johnson (and Son Heung-Min on the other flank) by switching the ball from left to right really effectively – although Dejan Kulusevski’s injury-enforced absence does diminish that ability somewhat, and they’ll miss his ball-carrying skills in transition too.

They also continue to work hard off the ball, not pressing as high as they'd like, but making sure they’re applying pressure centrally to the man in possession from a compact mid-block. Solanke leads that effort very well.

What weaknesses can Saints pick at?

Spurs have been far from defensively stable this season, conceding 44 goals from 30 games. Defensive and goalkeeping injuries are obviously central to that, but even on Thursday with a full-strength backline, Chelsea were able to cause them a lot of problems.

Vicario is a good shot-stopper, but has often been targeted at set-pieces and crowded out, as he lacks the height and strength to fend off big bodies.

Chelsea struggled to play through Spurs’ mid-block but easily moved the ball wide, then sent in a series of dangerous crosses; Cole Palmer’s delivery for Enzo Fernández’s headed winner was basically unpressured.

Spurs also suffered with longer balls over the top, with Nicolas Jackson’s bustling runs causing the centre-backs to make mistakes in dangerous areas.

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Vicario; Porro, Romero, Gray, Davies; Bissouma, Sarr, Maddison; Johnson, Tel, Richarlison.

• Spurs played late this midweek and will play Eintracht Frankfurt in the UEFA Europa League next Thursday, which is their best chance to save their season. As a result, heavy rotation is expected for this match against Saints

• They’ve been extremely careful with van de Ven’s fitness and likely won’t deploy him here

• Kulusevski and former Saint Kevin Danso are unavailable due to injury

• Richarlison is fit again and could step in for Solanke