Tactical Watch: Fast start key to disrupting "gamestate kings"

Nottingham Forest sit third in the table, just six points off the summit, in January. Are they the story of the season?

Undoubtedly so; they haven’t simply ripped up the script – they’ve set fire to it.

In a season where Manchester City and Manchester United have faltered, Newcastle United started slowly and Aston Villa have battled Champions League fixture congestion, Forest sensed an opening. Some really consistent, solid performances have paved a path for them to eclipse all of the aforementioned.

It remains to be seen whether or not they’re truly “in the title race,” but they are very clearly in the hunt for the Champions League places – and if it weren’t for the very fresh example of Leicester City winning a miraculous title in 2016, we’d probably be making even more of what the Garibaldis have achieved during the first half of this season.

How have they done it?

The secret to Nottingham Forest’s powers is elementary: they are the gamestate kings of the Premier League.

They have taken the lead in 17 of their 21 games this season – more than any other team – won 12 of them, drawn five and lost just four. It’s hardly rocket science to suggest scoring first in a low-scoring sport makes winning more likely, but it is a refreshingly simple reality in an increasingly complex game.

Again, there’s a parallel with Leicester City 2016 here: Forest have mastered the art of starting fast, scoring early, then sitting off and creating situations that they can launch devastating counter-attacks from.

This works because in Nuno Espírito Santo, they have a manager who coaches a mean low-block defence; and in Chris Wood, they have a late-blooming striker who is enjoying the season of his life (sound familiar?) and surrounded by pace.

They’ve averaged just 39 per cent possession – the lowest in the division – but spring onto the counter when they win the ball and make the most of their opportunities.

What’s the secret to beating them?

The natural starting point here is to take their intended gameplan away from them. Saints scoring first would disrupt the flow that Forest have come to expect games to take – after all, they haven’t gone behind in a game in over a month.

Removing that ability to play reactively is key, as teams have been burned by the powerful running of Morgan Gibbs-White through the centre and fleet-footed dribbling of Callum Hudson-Odoi while pushing up and chasing a goal.

You also need to be prepared to play a very physical, aggressive game – particularly in midfield. Ryan Yates and co. tackle firmly (but fairly), setting an imperious edge, breaking the game up and stopping opponents getting into their rhythm.

Predicted XI: Sels; Aina, Milenković, Murillo, Moreno; Yates, Domínguez; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.

• After an extremely intense midweek game against Liverpool, Nuno seems likely to freshen up a fairly stable XI

• Moreno and Domínguez could step in for Williams and Anderson

• Ward-Prowse, Jota Silva and Sosa are also vying for minutes after contributing to an FA Cup win last weekend